The grid will collapse if everyone switches to EVs
The reality
The Australian grid can absorb a full EV fleet without major new generation capacity, according to the AEMO 2024 Integrated System Plan. AEMO's modelling shows that even at 100% EV adoption (a 2050+ scenario), peak demand rises by only around 10% — small relative to the electrification of heating and industry, which dominates load growth.
The reason is timing. About 80% of EV charging happens overnight in residential garages, when grid demand is at its lowest and renewable generation (especially wind) is often producing more than the grid needs. Smart-charging programs from networks like Origin, AGL and Energy Locals already shift more than half of residential EV load to off-peak periods using time-of-use tariffs.
Vehicle-to-grid (V2G) goes a step further: an EV battery becomes a grid asset that adds capacity rather than consuming it. ARENA-funded V2G trials in the ACT and NSW have shown EVs can feed back to the grid during evening peaks, earning owners around $1,000 per year. The Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, Nissan Leaf, BYD Atto 3 and Volkswagen ID.4 all now support V2G in Australia.